INFLATION

It seems that inflation will return to run throughout the month of May 2010. Central Statistics Agency (BPS) project, during the May 2010 inflation will occur in the range 0.1% to 0.2%. From our observations, the month of May 2010 is almost certainly happening inflation, BPS chief Rusman Heriawan said.

One of the triggers inflation in the months of May 2010 is the price of rice began to rise after a fall during the time of rice harvest season in March and then until April 2010. No movement of rice prices began to rise again, so the rice does not give donations in deflation now, Rusman said.

Besides rice, Rusman expressed, some other basic prices also rose. For example, red chillies and onions so it will take a contributor to inflation during the month was May 2010.

Lucky, Rusman said there were some staple whose price declined. Take for example, cooking oil and cayenne pepper. Thus, this decrease could put the brakes on inflation.
However, Rusman said, during the month of May 2010 there was no remarkable price volatility. So that inflation is expected, at best, only 0.2%. Therefore, the increase in basic electricity tariff (TDL) and consumption for the new school year has not yet occurred.

For information, inflation re-run in April 2010 and had stopped in March after the previous due to the deflation of 0.14%. BPS noted, last month there has been an inflation of 0.15%. That means, the rate of inflation in the first four months of 2010 has reached 1.15%. Meanwhile, inflation for April 2009 April 2010 aka year on year (yoy) 3.91%.

Previously, Bank Indonesia (BI) estimates that, during the May 2010 inflation pressure will be greater than last April 2010. But I do not know yet how much, says Bank deputy governor Hartadi Agus Sarwono.

According Hartadi, the main trigger that sparked the inflation rate in May 2010, the prices of some commodities in global markets that began creeping up, following the world economic downturn continues to rise from the global financial crisis.
That is why, Hartadi revealed, the Central Bank was aware of trigger factors such as inflation is imported inflation. This is what we should watch out because if we import many raw materials like it then can be imported inflation.

Danareksa Research Institute economist Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa projecting, aka no increase in inflation in May 2010, but his ascension is not too significant.


Only for The Joy of Speculation
Decline in the share price of PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) and Bakrie Group shares yesterday was fair. Because, fundamentally, these companies was less healthy, but its stock price is too high. So, sooner or later the stock price will reflect the fundamentals of a company.

Nevertheless, the decline in stock prices of Bakrie Group is not free from rumors that make investors nervous, especially about the planned rights issue at a specified price EARTH that will lead to investor ownership diluted. On the other hand, look at the debt burden is already too big EARTH, EARTH ahead will be difficult to be able to expand.

EARTH financial cash conditions in 2010 will also be depressed because of the bonds maturing in the second half is worth more than U.S. $ 400 million. If not able to pay it off, EARTH feared to perform debt to equity swap.

In addition to rumors of the rights issue, also influenced the collapsed stocks news EARTH EARTH plan that will sell its stake in PT Delta World Makmur Tbk (DOID). During this time, the news circulating mention, EARTH will acquire through DOID Berau Coal. With the cancellation of the rights issue DOID, Berau Coal plans to acquire EARTH too messy.

At the time Sri Mulyani resign as Minister of Finance, in fact many investors who bought shares of EARTH. They hope this high-flying stock price due to political problems surrounding the Bakrie Group stocks have finished. But apparently, that expectation did not materialize. Finally, investors were many who took off back its shares to the market.
In the near future, investors should not buy shares of the Bakrie Group. These companies are less healthy group and its share price is very volatile. Bakrie shares to be purchased is not good, except for investors who like to speculate.